ICT Silver Bullet Strategy: Rules and How to Test It
The ICT silver bullet strategy explained: the three one hour windows, the usual entry rules, stops and targets, common mistakes, and how to backtest it.
The silver bullet is a time based setup from ICT teaching. It looks for one fair value gap inside a specific one hour window, in the direction price is expected to run. It is popular because the rules are short and the window limits how long you watch the screen.
The windows
| Window | New York time |
|---|---|
| London session | 3:00 to 4:00 |
| New York morning | 10:00 to 11:00 |
| New York afternoon | 14:00 to 15:00 |
Most traders start with the 10:00 window, half an hour after the US stock open.
The usual rules
Versions differ, but most look like this:
- Pick a target. Before the window, mark the nearest obvious high or low that price may run to.
- Wait for the window. Do nothing outside it.
- Find the move. Inside the window, look for a sharp move toward that target, often after a liquidity sweep on the other side.
- Enter on the gap. Place a limit order in the first fair value gap the move leaves behind.
- Set the stop. Put it beyond the candle or swing that made the gap.
- Take the target. Exit at the level from step 1, and close by the end of the session.
Common mistakes
- Forcing a trade. Many windows have no clean setup, and no trade is the right answer on those days.
- Tiny targets. After commission and slippage, small targets need a very high win rate. The risk reward calculator shows the break even.
- Only looking at the good days. Popular examples are chosen because they worked, so count every window, including the empty ones and the losers.
- Sizing up after a win. Keep the risk fixed until you have a real sample. See how much to risk per trade.
How to test it
Because the rules are short, this strategy can be tested both ways:
- By script. ChartTrainer's library has a silver bullet strategy you can run in the backtester and change in the script editor. The report shows every trade on a chart, results by hour, and buy and hold over the same days to compare against. It is our own reading of the rules, so check it against yours.
- By hand. Replay random days in the ICT simulator with the date hidden and take only what the rules allow. This shows whether you can really follow them live, which a script can't tell you.
Judge the result on a large sample and after costs. Backtest and practice results don't promise real results.
Questions
- What are the silver bullet times?
- Three one hour windows in New York time: 3:00 to 4:00, 10:00 to 11:00 and 14:00 to 15:00. Most traders focus on the 10:00 window.
- What markets does the silver bullet work on?
- It is usually taught on index futures such as NQ and ES, and also applied to currency pairs and gold. Whether it works on your market is something to test, not assume.
- What timeframe is the silver bullet traded on?
- Usually the 1 to 5 minute chart for the entry, with direction taken from a higher timeframe.
- Does the silver bullet strategy really work?
- No strategy works just because it is popular. Results depend on the exact rules, the market and your costs. Compare the result with simply buying and holding over the same days, after commission.
- What is a good target for the silver bullet?
- Most versions aim for the next obvious high or low, and some ask for at least about 10 points on NQ. Test the targets you would really use, because a small target leaves little room after costs.