Prop firm evaluation pass rate: a coin flip vs 7 years of NQ
On NQ price history from May 2019 to February 2026, a trader who entered once a day at a random time in a random direction passed 18.4% of $50,000 evaluations with an intraday trailing drawdown, 21.6% with an end of day drawdown and 31.2% with a static one.
A 15-minute opening range breakout with the same stop and target passed 22.3% with the trailing drawdown, 4 points more than the coin.
Published 23 October 2026. Real NQ price history, May 2019 to February 2026.
The rules of the test
- The coin trader takes one trade a day at a random time between 9:35 and 15:00 New York time, in a random direction, with 1 NQ.
- The stop is 20 points ($400) and the target 40 points ($800). The trade closes at 16:00 if neither is hit.
- Each trade costs $15: commission plus one tick of slippage each way.
- The evaluation is $50,000, passes at $53,000, and has a $2,000 drawdown that stops trailing at $50,000. There is no daily loss limit, consistency rule or time limit.
- An evaluation started on every trading day, 1,562 sessions in all. The coin ran 4 evaluations per day.
- The opening range breakout marks the high and low from 9:30 to 9:45 and takes the first break after 9:45, with the same stop, target and costs.
- Static: The floor stays at $48,000 for the whole evaluation.
- End of day: The floor follows the highest closing balance, $2,000 below it, until it reaches $50,000.
- Trailing (intraday): The floor follows the highest balance at any moment, open profit included, until it reaches $50,000.
The tables
Pass rate by drawdown type
| Drawdown | Coin flip | Opening range breakout | Breakout lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Static | 31.2% | 40.7% | +9.5 points |
| End of day | 21.6% | 25.2% | +3.6 points |
| Trailing (intraday) | 18.4% | 22.3% | +3.9 points |
Pass rate by risk per trade
| Risk per trade | Pass rate | Trades per evaluation |
|---|---|---|
| $200 | 11.8% | 36.5 |
| $400 | 18.4% | 11.8 |
| $800 | 20.6% | 4.6 |
| $1,500 | 17.5% | 3.1 |
What costs do
| Risk per trade | $0 costs | $15 costs | $30 costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| $200 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 5.3% |
| $400 | 22.4% | 18.4% | 15.2% |
Year by year
| Year | Coin flip | Breakout |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 (May on) | 20.4% | 8.9% |
| 2020 | 17.7% | 25.9% |
| 2021 | 17.7% | 11.7% |
| 2022 | 18.1% | 28.2% |
| 2023 | 20.1% | 17.4% |
| 2024 | 19.0% | 33.5% |
| 2025 | 19.0% | 28.1% |
The closest call reached $52,990, $10 short of passing, and failed 16 trades later.
What it means
- The coin's pass rate is a yardstick: a strategy is only worth practicing if it beats it on the same rules.
- The drawdown rule alone moved the coin from 18.4% to 31.2%. Know which drawdown your evaluation uses before you judge a strategy.
- Risking less failed more. At $200 a trade the coin needed about 36 trades per evaluation instead of 12, and every trade paid $15. Without costs it passed 23.6%.
- The breakout beat the coin overall, but the trailing drawdown cut its lead from 9.5 points to about 4, and it passed fewer evaluations than the coin in 2019, 2021 and 2023.
Limits
- One trade a day, $15 costs per trade, one market (NQ), past data.
- No daily loss limit, consistency rule or time limit. Other rules give other numbers.
- Evaluations that start on neighbouring days share most of their trades, so read the rates as approximate, not to the decimal.
- It is not a promise about any firm or any trader, and it is not financial advice.
How it was measured
- Simulated on 1-second NQ bars from 6 May 2019 to 12 February 2026, 1,562 trading sessions.
- The coin ran 6,248 evaluations per setting and the breakout 1,562. A rate counts the evaluations that passed or failed before the data ended.
- With the 20 point stop the coin won 33 to 34% of its trades, as a fair coin with a 2:1 target should.
- These results were measured on real NQ price history. The practice app itself runs on generated market data for now.
- We publish results only; the price data itself is licensed and not shared.
The video
Prop Firm Evaluation Pass Rate: Can Your Strategy Beat a Coin? (YouTube). A coin flip takes a $50,000 prop firm evaluation on every trading day of almost seven years of real NQ data, then a 15-minute opening range breakout takes the same test.
Practice this in the simulator
Practice the same three drawdown rules in a free evaluation account. The simulator checks them on every candle and shows the room you have left. Practice this in the simulator
Questions
- What is the pass rate of a prop firm evaluation?
- It depends on the rules and the trader. In this test a coin flip trader passed 18.4% of $50,000 NQ evaluations with an intraday trailing drawdown, 21.6% with an end of day drawdown and 31.2% with a static one. Read those numbers as the floor a real strategy has to beat.
- Does a trailing drawdown make an evaluation harder?
- Yes, in this test. With the same kind of trades the coin passed 31.2% with a static drawdown and 18.4% with an intraday trailing one, and the breakout's lead over the coin shrank from 9.5 points to about 4.
- Does risking less help you pass?
- Not here. With a trailing drawdown and $15 costs, risking $200 a trade passed 11.8% against 18.4% at $400, because it needed about 36 trades instead of 12 and every trade paid costs. Without costs, $200 passed 23.6%.
- Does the opening range breakout beat a coin flip?
- Over the whole period, yes: 22.3% against 18.4% with a trailing drawdown. Not every year: it passed 8.9% in 2019, 11.7% in 2021 and 17.4% in 2023, below the coin in each of those years.
- Was this tested on real market data?
- Yes, on real NQ price history in 1-second bars. The practice app itself runs on generated market data for now, and the price data is licensed and not shared.